NCAA 2024 Playoff Prediction with projected regular season record.
Power Four Conference Champions
1. Oregon (12-0)
We put Oregon in the top spot at this point because we believe Texas will struggle with their remaining games in the SEC and Georgia’s loss to the Crimson Tide and Ole Miss will eliminate an SEC team in the top spot. The Ducks will not cruise to a Big 10 Championship however, as we see a rematch with Ohio State in December. There is very little in the way of Oregon winning the Big 10 outright in its inaugural season.
2. Texas A&M (10-2)
The carnage of the SEC is clear and now a win over LSU favors A&M in this spot. Except for conspiracy theories that are slowly coming true, the Alabama Crimson Tide schedule offers no major opponent now that they beat LSU. Although Oklahoma Sooner football is currently in the proverbial fetal position, we see where motivation to beat Alabama and salvage a bad season could play a hand in the matchup. We do see Auburn upsetting Alabama, which is why we do not see them in this spot!
OR
2. Texas (10-2)
One of the three barriers on this road to the National Championship came to fruition with a loss to Georgia and we predicted a struggle against Vanderbilt. Texas will also lose to in state rival, Texas A&M; albeit the Aggies loss to the Gamecocks. Even with a second loss, and despite Stephen Sarkisian’s ability to put his foot in his mouth, in order to keep this spot, Texas has to beat A&M in their finale.
3. Miami (11-1)
I know what you are thinking, why Miami in third place? But after beating Louisville, the loss to Georgia Tech really should not have a bearing on the ACC Championship. Based on the remaining schedule, SMU is the likely contender for the bid for the ACC championship game with Miami. In order to keep this spot the Hurricanes have to run the table, including the ACC Championship obviously, or they are out completely with Clemson getting the nod in SMU’s spot and SMU getting Miami’s spot here!
4. Colorado (10-2)
The goal of the 12 team playoff is to ensure that the power four conference winners have top billing after it is all said and done! We don’t consider Colorado as a top echelon team. And, despite their loss to Nebraska, they will more than likely be the Big12 Champions. But like Miami, we have to include the power four in the top 4 spots. If you have watched BYU all season, you have to accept two facts: 1) The best conference representative will not always be the best college football representative in the playoffs; and 2) BYU is overrated and just plain lucky, so to speak, watching the Utah and UCF games. With Iowa State and Kansas State in a downward spiral, Colorado will vanquish the Cougars to finally end the hype!
Championship and At-Large Playoff Teams
5. Ohio St (11-1)
To make these predictions you have to work from the remaining part of the season using the schedule already played as the indicator going forward. We find that Ohio State has only one remaining potential upset in their path, their rival Michigan. Our predictions show that Ohio State beats Michigan to replay Oregon in the Big 10 Championship. A loss to Michigan after beating Penn St gets us deeper in the weeds on the tiebreaker scenarios.
6. Texas A&M (10-2)
As with the number two spot, the loser gets the 6th spot as a consolation prize. The caveat to all that is if there is a rematch in the conference championship or not. If there is a rematch, then if whatever team wins the first matchup and loses the championship game just may get a lesser spot. However, a loss by Texas with A&M playing Tennessee or Ole Miss actually helps the Longhorns secure this spot. To be truthful, the best spot just might be to be highly rated without a championship game! If Texas A&M loses the first of the matchups, they are definitely out with Alabama, Tennessee, and Ole Miss being the appropriate suitors.
OR
6. Texas (10-2)
Texas keeps this spot only if they win the first matchup with the Aggies for the season finale. If they lose to A&M and then sit out of the championship game, then they will see themselves in a spot like this. Why? Because, the conference championship loser who is not Texas is out!
7. Penn St (11-1)
As mentioned, Penn State loses in the round robin tie-breaker. By losing to Ohio State they set themselves up for a bid at the championship run, however from outside the Big 10 Championship game. It is still a possibility that the Nittany Lions could lose to Minnesota as their style of play has been less than dominate. Either way they are in despite their loss to Ohio State and not getting a championship spot.
8. Notre Dame (10-2)
The luck of the Irish lands them in the playoffs despite having the weakest schedule and losing to Northern Illinois and USC, projected in their finale. Army and Navy get the Irish mafia to vote them to the top 25 to bolster Notre Dame’s strength of schedule. Now they can say they beat a ranked Navy team, although it plummeted immediately after that game. They will even tout it now that Navy dropped so badly. However, even as an Irish fan myself, I have to say that losing to USC in the final game of the season will be embarrassment enough. We believe that the Trojans have one of the hardest schedules in college football, along with LSU. But truth be told, having no Championship game should leave them on the outside looking in.
OR
8. Indiana (11-1)
Indiana struggled a bit after its “huge” victory over the Cornhuskers. However, a win over Ohio State has them in the championship game with Oregon. If I were the Hoosiers coach, I would want to lose in a way to Ohio State that keeps me in the top 12 but outside of the championship game. That would solidify a spot in the playoffs and would allow you to keep your best ball close to the vest for the playoffs. However, a win over the Buckeyes and an upset over the Ducks creates an easier path to the championship game. We predict a “solid” loss which keeps them in the Top 10 but only gets the 8th spot if Notre Dame loses to USC, like we predict. Either way, it is amazing turnaround story that could or will be, just Google it!
9. Indiana (11-1) or SMU
/
If Notre Dame keeps the 8th spot then Indiana and SMU each move down a spot. If Notre Dame loses toe USC, then
10. SMU (10-2)
The ACC is probably the weakest of the power four conferences and the low ranking of the only second ACC team here is an indication of that. Some would say that the likely candidate here is Clemson. However, SMU has the more favorable schedule remaining second to Miami. We also predict that Clemson may lose at least one more game with their remaining schedule. The Mustangs have a clear path to the conference championship game and the playoffs.
11. Boise State (11-1)
So, now we are where we have been for several years with the team that started all the talk in the first place of having a playoff system in play. With the win over UNLV, Boise State has the schedule that is so easy that, except for a hiccup here or there, eliminates all the drama except for if Notre Dame wins outright then choices have to be made between Boise State and Washington State! The deciding vote could also be losing in a rematch to UNLV in the conference championship game. If they win, well then they win the vote and they are the “sole representative” from the Mountain West Conference/PAC-2! Imagine if the votes went to Washington State, and Boise may be watching from home and lobbying Congress for a full 32 team field!
On The Bubble
12. (10-2)
If Georgia beats Tennessee they have a solid case for being in the playoffs over Boise State (LMAO)! With the Longhorns loss to Georgia and a loss to Texas A&M, you may see Georgia rise to the #6 spot. We said that Georgia has two potential losses on its radar with Ole Miss and Tennessee. Since they already lost to Ole Miss, an additional loss have them out of the running. As of now they are on the bubble.
OR
12. Washington State (11-1)
The sole winner of the 2024 final exodus from the Pac-12 are the Cougars of Washington State. In essence, the PAC 12 agreement with the Mountain West Conference was just the ticket. We project that the Washington State Cougars will go undefeated for the remainder of their season and into their “championship game” with the Oregon State Beavers and beat them handedly. Except for the prospects of motivation that may come from a “conference championship” in a conference with two teams, we do not see Oregon State winning anytime soon. Good thing we will know the “Champion” before the end of November. A Notre Dame loss has them in the Big Dance!
OR
10. BYU (12-0)
Currently, BYU is rated #7 and #8 in the polls but they should be on the outside looking in. However, we believe that LSU, with the most rigorous remaining schedule of the season, may lose up to four games with a minimum of two. Tennessee is in the same boat with two more projected losses. Since BYU got by Oklahoma State and Iowa State lost to Kansas, they will be playing Colorado for the conference championship. Although, a should be loss to a rival Utah team, should lower their stock not improve it, you have to put an undefeated team going into the championship and losing still in the top 10. We believe Kansas State will lose at least one more game and the head to head favors BYU, so we predict BYU’s worst case and still getting in.
OR
10. BYU (12-0)
Currently, BYU is rated #7 and #8 in the polls but they should be on the outside looking in. However, we believe that LSU, with the most rigorous remaining schedule of the season, may lose up to four games with a minimum of two. Tennessee is in the same boat with two more projected losses. Since BYU got by Oklahoma State and Iowa State lost to Kansas, they will be playing Colorado for the conference championship. Although, a should be loss to a rival Utah team, should lower their stock not improve it, you have to put an undefeated team going into the championship and losing still in the top 10. We believe Kansas State will lose at least one more game and the head to head favors BYU, so we predict BYU’s worst case and still getting in.
