By GTM Staff
ST. LOUIS — July 15, 2025 — The U.S. freight market showed continued softness in June, with shipment volumes flat and freight spending slipping month-over-month, according to the latest Cass Freight Index®, a widely followed barometer of shipping activity and costs.
The shipments component of the index edged down 0.2% from May, reflecting a stagnant trend in domestic freight movement. Compared to a year ago, shipments declined 2.4%, improving slightly from May’s 4.0% annual decline, but still marking the continuation of a multi-year downtrend.
“After rebounding 13% in 2021, freight volumes have been in retreat ever since,” said Tim Denoyer, senior analyst with ACT Research, which authors the monthly report. The index fell 5.5% in 2023, 4.1% in 2024, and is currently tracking toward another full-year decline in 2025.
Although volumes held steady between May and June, the long-term picture remains clouded by shifting trade policies. According to ACT, the recent implementation of steep tariffs—the highest since the 1930s—is creating ripple effects in the freight economy, including pre-tariff inventory surges followed by anticipated destocking.
Denoyer cautioned that July could see a sharper seasonal drop, with a projected 5% year-over-year decline, though rising import volumes could partially offset the typical summer slowdown.
Freight Expenditures Decline as Rates Cool Off
The expenditures component of the Cass Index, which tracks the total amount spent on freight, fell 1.2% month-over-month, even as it registered a 2.6% year-over-year increase—the third straight month of annual gains after more than two years of declines.
Notably, the rise in spending came despite the drop in shipments, implying that freight rates rose 5.2% year-over-year in June. This was largely attributed to a shift in shipping mix—more truckload (TL) and fewer less-than-truckload (LTL) shipments—rather than a broad-based rate recovery.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the expenditures index declined 2.9%, with both shipments and rates showing slight declines. Cass data shows that freight spending soared 38% in 2021 and 23% in 2022, before retreating 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024.
Rates Show Signs of Stabilization
The Cass Inferred Freight Rates, which calculate the average cost per shipment across all domestic freight modes, fell 1.0% month-over-month and 2.8% seasonally adjusted, even as year-over-year rates rose due to mix effects.
Despite the headline increase, Denoyer noted that the rate strength may be misleading: “While the 5.2% y/y increase outpaces most freight markets, it’s more a reflection of modal mix than a true pricing surge. Market rates aren’t accelerating meaningfully.”
Indeed, ACT Research’s broader rate benchmarks, including the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, support that view. The linehaul index—which isolates per-mile truckload rates—rose 0.4% in June after falling in May. On a year-over-year basis, linehaul rates were up 1.9%, but largely due to easier comparisons with 2024.
“The market remains oversupplied,” Denoyer added. “Pre-tariff shipping hasn’t tightened the balance despite seasonal demand.”
Uncertainty Clouds Outlook
The broader freight market remains highly sensitive to trade policy developments. With the newly implemented tariffs driving up the cost of imported goods, ACT Research warns that consumer affordability and real incomes could take a hit in the months ahead.
“The highest tariffs in nearly a century are already impacting international freight flows,” the Cass report states. Though 75–80% of freight is domestic, the consequences of shifting supply chains are reverberating across ports, warehouses, and highways.
Analysts also point to pre-tariff inventory building as a likely headwind for the second half of 2025, as companies move into a destocking phase, reducing demand for trucking and rail services.
Accurate Forecasting Amid Volatility
Despite the turbulence, ACT Research’s forecasting accuracy has remained high. Its 2024 forecast for the Truckload Linehaul Index was 98.8% accurate, and 95.0% accurate for the shipments component of the Cass Index, over an 18-month horizon. The firm’s ACT Freight Forecast continues to guide expectations through 2027 across dozens of freight metrics.
About the Index
The Cass Freight Index® and Cass Truckload Linehaul Index are produced monthly using data from over $40 billion in annual freight spend processed by Cass Information Systems. The data reflects a diverse cross-section of U.S. freight, including truckload (TL), less-than-truckload (LTL), rail, parcel, and other modes.
For more information or to access the full report, visit cassinfo.com.